CHINA'S NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY AFTER FUKUSHIMA

nuclear power industry, China, export of nuclear technologies, Fukushima accident- Keywords:1", Pakistan

Despite the limited opportunities for China to compete in the global market of nuclear industry technologies due to the lack of experience in building nuclear power plants and the low level of technology, China is trying to play at a low price. Some countries make a choice in favor of the PRC, based on geopolitical considerations.

China's cooperation with Pakistan is typical from this point of view. The interaction of any country with Pakistan is very specific due to the fact that Pakistan not only did not join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), but also de facto became a country with nuclear weapons. Therefore, no State exporting nuclear technologies has the right to supply it with certain technologies related not only to nuclear weapons, but also to the peaceful atom.

THE "SUBTLETIES" OF BEIJING'S NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY

At the current stage, Pakistan's nuclear power capacity is only 425 MW, but Pakistan has far-reaching plans to expand its share in the country's power grid. According to the Pakistan Energy Development Plan adopted in 2005, it is planned to increase the nuclear power capacity by 900 MW by 2015, then by another 1,500 MW over the next 5 years, and in the future to reach the level of 8,800 MW1.

Pakistan's first nuclear reactor was built near Karachi with the help of Canada and has been in operation since 1972.

The second PWR reactor with a capacity of 300 MW was delivered to the Chashma-1 Power Plant (Chasma Nuclear Power Plant CHASNUPP-1) by the Chinese National Nuclear Company (CNNC). Construction began in 1993 and the power unit was put into operation in 2000. In 2000, the two countries signed an agreement on the construction of the 2nd power unit of the Chashma NPP with a CPR-300 reactor. The Chashma-2 reactor was launched for commercial operation in 2011 in May 2011. China 2 also supplies fuel to the station.

Both contracts were signed prior to China's accession to the Organization of the Nuclear Exporting Countries in 2004, and do not violate the commitments made by Beijing, while the agreements signed later for the construction of the 3rd and 4th units of the Chashma NPP raise questions. China insists on considering these reactors as part of previously concluded contracts and denies any contradictions with China's membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Under these agreements, China will build an additional two power units with a capacity of 330 MW each, respectively. Construction of Unit 3 began in 2009, with commissioning scheduled for 2016, and Unit 4 for 2011 and 2017, respectively. 3 In November 2010, it was announced that an agreement had been reached to supply Unit 4 5 to Pakistan. China performs 82% of the work being done on the Chashma reactors on credit.

Pakistan's accession to the NPT remains highly unlikely. Despite the fact that the existing and under construction reactors are under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Pakistan refuses to allow inspectors to its uranium enrichment plants. This means that Pakistan will continue to be subject to a ban on the import of nuclear technology, which significantly hinders the development of the country's nuclear power industry.

Among all the countries exporting nuclear technology, only China can become a likely partner of Pakistan in the development of nuclear energy. Now, by manipulating legal niceties, Beijing is looking for ways to circumvent the strict ban on the supply of nuclear industry technologies to Pakistan, which, coupled with Islamabad's interest in Chinese assistance, allows the missile defense system-

Ending. For the beginning, see: Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 11.

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predict the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries 5.

Pakistan also planned to import 7 1,000 MW reactors from China, including two units at the Karachi site. But development of the CNP-1000 reactor, intended for export by China, was suspended in 2007, and Islamabad shifted its focus to lower-power reactors.6
According to experts, a new round of cooperation between the two countries in the nuclear energy sector will occur as soon as China manages to finalize the technology of the Chinese reactor-one million for export. Reactors of this type and capacity not only meet the capacity of Pakistan's power grid, but also meet the electricity needs in accordance with the country's Energy development Plan of 2005.7

RESOLUTE VIETNAM AND WAVERING SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES

China plays an important role in the annual Asian Forum for Nuclear Energy Cooperation, established in 2000.

Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore are interested in using nuclear fission energy as a source of electricity within the country, but their specific plans for the development of nuclear power are at different stages.

Vietnam has advanced the most.

Vietnam's nuclear power development plan calls for the construction of two million-strong power units by 2020 and the construction of 6 more reactors by 2030.8 And this will increase the share of energy received from the atom to 8%, and in the long term raise this figure to 20%.

The issue of building the first two units was finally resolved in October 2010.The US-Japanese corporation Westinghouse, French EdF, South Korean Kepco and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) expressed great interest in building the first Vietnamese nuclear power plant.

But during the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Hanoi on October 31, 2010, an agreement was signed between the governments of the two countries on cooperation in the construction of nuclear power plants in Vietnam. The agreement provides for the turnkey construction of two units of the Ninh Thuan-1 NPP using Russian technology with a capacity of 1,200 MW each. Atomstroyexport, a subsidiary of the Rosatom State Corporation, will build Vietnam's first nuclear power plant9.

The choice of the Vietnamese was determined by the ability of Rosatom State Corporation to provide a single package of services, starting from the actual construction of nuclear power plants and ending with the management of irradiated nuclear fuel and radioactive waste. The terms of sale of Russian reactors were quite competitive against the background of other proposals received (the Russian side credits 85% of the payment for their cost). The extensive experience of the Russian nuclear industry in comparison with South Korean and Chinese suppliers also played a significant role.

Vietnam prefers the Chinese approach to the development of nuclear energy, which consists in accumulating the knowledge of a number of countries. So, at the moment, certain agreements on cooperation in the use of peaceful nuclear energy have been signed with France, China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, the United States, Canada, and there is information about cooperation in this area also with Argentina and India.

Of the 6 blocks still unallocated among general contractors, two were promised to Japan by the Vietnamese government in February 2010. Several more units are likely destined for China: Vietnam is now showing great interest in China's Fangchenggang nuclear power plant, which has been under construction since 2010 near the border of the two countries in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. In the future, Vietnam looks forward to working closely with China, in particular with the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC)10.

The accident at Fukushima may only slightly adjust the previously planned construction time of a nuclear power plant in Vietnam. The country's energy consumption is constantly growing, and Vietnam has considerable reserves of uranium. Hanoi has stated that it intends to continue work on the construction of the country's first nuclear power plant, giving priority to the safety of nuclear power plants.11
There is a research nuclear reactor in Dalat, which is operated with the help of Russia.

Among other Southeast Asian countries, Thailand and Indonesia have a strategy for developing nuclear energy, but unlike Vietnam, its implementation faces serious difficulties.

Thailand is going to increase its nuclear power production in order to reduce its dependence on natural gas, which now provides 72% of the country's electricity. And according to forecasts, in the next 20 years, the need for it will increase annually by 7%12.

In 2007, the energy Development Plan for 2007-2021 was adopted, according to which the Thai authorities planned to build four 1000 MW nuclear power plants, the cost of which is estimated at $8 billion. It was planned that two of them will be launched in 2020, and the other two will start a year later. However, a similar plan adopted in 2010 and calculated until 2030 provides for an increase in the capacity of nuclear power units to 5,000 MW with the commissioning of stations during 2020-2028. 13

When developing nuclear power, Thailand faces environmental problems and negative public opinion. And if the protests of the local population are resolved by changing the sites for the construction of the first NPP 14, then understanding on the part of environmental protection organizations has not yet been achieved.

In November 2009, the Power Generation Authority of Thailand and the Thai corporation CLP Holdings Ltd signed an agreement on cooperation in the following areas:-

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development of nuclear energy with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation. This can help the Chinese government to become one of the partners in the construction of nuclear power plants in the country in the future.

For Thailand, Fukushima has become a serious reason to reevaluate all the pros and cons of exploring nuclear energy. According to research conducted in April 2011, 83% of the population oppose the construction of nuclear power plants. There is a lot of pressure on the government, and in such conditions, the economic benefits of building the station and the political motives of the struggle for leadership in the region are not enough arguments to give the construction a green light.

As a result, the completion of the first nuclear power plant has been postponed from 2020 to 2023,15 But in a situation where Vietnam's neighbor and rival in the struggle for leadership in the region has decided not to abandon plans to develop a peaceful atom, Bangkok may have to speed up this construction.16
Since the early 2000s, Indonesia has announced plans to build nuclear power plants in order to solve the problem of excessive dependence on non-renewable energy sources. In 2004, Su-silo President Bambang Yudhoyono ordered research into nuclear power, and in 2006 announced that a nuclear power plant was planned to be built in 2016 in the Central Java region17.

Jakarta is considering building at least four reactors with a total capacity of 4,000 MW by 2025.18 It has already turned to Russia, Korea, France and Japan for assistance in developing nuclear power. Negotiations are underway with Australia to provide nuclear fuel for future stations and help develop the uranium resources of Indonesia itself, which has 59 thousand tons of uranium in the provinces of West and East Kalimantan. In addition, there are large unexplored uranium reserves on the island of Papua 19.

However, the country's population is opposed to the construction of a nuclear power plant. In March 2010, Suharna Suryapranata, Indonesia's Minister of Science and Technology, reported that the State had allocated significant funds to conduct a campaign to overcome negative public attitudes towards nuclear power.20
The greatest concern is the problem of the safety of nuclear power plant operation on the territory of the country. Frequent exposure to natural disasters such as volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis raises doubts about the ability to ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants. This issue has been repeatedly raised and is being raised both within the country and by neighboring countries, which are afraid of possible severe consequences.

However, the country's energy consumption is steadily increasing, and together with the country's commitment to developing clean energy sources, it can be assumed that the situation will change over time and the Indonesian nuclear technology market will begin to develop rapidly. At the moment, China does not appear in the lists of potential nuclear power plant builders in Indonesia, but Chinese experts believe that China has a good chance in the future to enter the Indonesian market21.

Immediately after the Fukushima disaster in Indonesia, endless debates began at the highest level about the feasibility of building a nuclear power plant in the country. The possibility of revising the plan for energy development in the direction of wider use of alternative sources is being studied. The main argument against nuclear power plants is still the fact that 83% of the state's territory is subject to natural disasters. At the moment, the cancellation of the initially considered nuclear plans has not been officially announced, but the discussion continues, and the pressure on supporters of nuclear energy is growing 22.

The Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore are interested in nuclear energy, aiming to ensure the country's energy security and reduce its dependence on energy imports.

In early 2010, the Malaysian Government allocated $7 billion. for the construction of a nuclear power plant, planning to launch the first reactor in 2021. The location of station 23 is still being studied.

In the Philippines, the first $460 million Westinghouse nuclear reactor was built in Bataan in 1984. But the fuel was never loaded into it due to financial difficulties and concerns about the safety of the reactor in the event of an earthquake. In 2008, it was decided to launch no for one nuclear power unit in 2025, 2027, 2030 and 2034. The possibility of resuscitating the Batan 24 reactor is also being considered.

Singapore is only exploring the prospects of using nuclear technology to meet the country's electricity needs.

BEIJING'S IRANIAN INTRICACIES

At the current stage, China remains one of Iran's main foreign partners in the field of nuclear energy.

This is largely due to China's interest in Iran's oil resources. China, which is constantly hungry for energy, buys up to 15% of its oil and natural gas from Iran, and this dependence will only grow over time - as will Iran's demands for increasingly advanced nuclear technology. 25
The main question is: to what point is China ready to reach in its pursuit of energy security?

The first agreement on cooperation between Iran and China in the use of nuclear energy was signed in 1985. Under this agreement, China has started training Iranian specialists in Chinese scientific institutions. Later, the agreement was supplemented by a treaty under which China assisted in the establishment of the main nuclear research institute in Isfahan, and put it in the following format:

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Iran's zero-power nuclear reactors, which as well as the research center in Isfahan, were later placed under IAEA safeguards.26
In 1991, it was officially announced that Chinese and Iranian companies had signed a contract to sell a small research reactor with a capacity of 20 MW to China. At the same time, it was emphasized that this equipment will be used exclusively for peaceful purposes (medical diagnostics, research in the field of physics) and will be under the IAEA safeguards system27.

In 1992, during the visit of Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani to Beijing, the two countries signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of nuclear energy.

In February 1993, a deal was signed to sell Iran a nuclear fusion reactor at Azad University in Tehran. In 1994, Chinese specialists visited Tehran twice to install, test and regulate the reactor's operation. In February 1995, Iran informed the Chinese side that the reactor was operating successfully.

In 1995, Tehran and Beijing signed an agreement for the Chinese side to build a nuclear power plant in Iran with two water-to-water reactors with a capacity of 300 MW each. The reactors, which the Chinese promised to complete in 7 to 9 years, were to be used for peaceful purposes and remain under the control of international IAEA inspections. Thus, this deal did not violate the principles established by the nonproliferation regime. However, the implementation of the agreements reached was slowed down due to technical and economic difficulties on the Chinese side, disagreements over the final result, as well as pressure from Washington. As a result, the project was not implemented 28.

Nuclear cooperation between the two countries continued, with China supplying raw uranium and helping to enrich it. In July 1994, the CIA reported that Chinese experts were working on the construction of a uranium enrichment plant in Rudan and Shiraz. In early 1996, China informed the IAEA of its offer to sell uranium conversion equipment to Iran and that the materials and equipment sold would be subject to the IAEA safeguards system. However, under an agreement signed between China and the United States in October 1997, China pledged to stop providing assistance to Iran in developing its nuclear power industry. This meant that the construction of the uranium enrichment plant had to be completed without Chinese assistance.29
This was the price that Beijing paid for the US President's sanction for the implementation of the US-China treaty on cooperation in the peaceful uses of atomic energy, signed back in 1985. This agreement provided for the transfer of some nuclear technology to the PRC, provided that China would not help other countries develop nuclear weapons.

WILL SOUTH AFRICA BECOME A SPRINGBOARD FOR PENETRATION INTO AFRICA?

Of all the countries on the African continent, only the Republic of South Africa shows serious intentions to develop nuclear energy.

In 2007, the South African Government approved a plan to increase the share of nuclear power by 20 GW. The program was to start with several pressurized water reactors with a total capacity of 4,000 MW30. It was intended to make a choice between the American-Japanese Westinghouse AP-1000 and the French AREVA EPR-1600, and the proposals of their manufacturers for the construction of reactors until 2025 were considered.

However, financial difficulties have forced the Government to reconsider its intentions.31 According to the South African Government's recently adopted energy plan for 2010-2030, nuclear capacity is planned to reach the level of 9600 MW.

At the same time, it was decided to abandon the original options proposed by the Americans and the French and proceed to consideration of cheaper offers, in particular, the option of inviting South Korea and China is being studied. 1 MW of the Chinese CPR-1000 reactor costs twice as much as the AP-1000 or EPR32.

The final decision has been postponed for some time, and South Africa is currently awaiting a finalized proposal from South Korea and China. 33
South Africa's nuclear cooperation with China is also carried out in the field of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, similar projects are being implemented in South Africa.

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projects are being implemented in both countries. Due to the complexity of the technology, it is too early to talk about any export opportunities, but in one way or another, such experience of interaction creates the basis for cooperation in the field of nuclear energy.

WHAT'S STOPPING YOU

Currently, the expansion of China's export activities in the field of nuclear energy is hindered by the lack of industrial-scale technologies for the production of nuclear power plant components and nuclear fuel cycle products. The Chinese nuclear industry is taking vigorous measures to build full independent production at all stages of the nuclear fuel cycle. The word jizhuhua (autonomous, independent) is found in the"Long - term Plan for the Development of Nuclear Energy for 2005-2020" 34 more often than any other. By mastering all the subtleties, China, due to the cheap labor and experience accumulated by installation companies, can gain an advantage in foreign markets in the price of products supplied and works performed over "old" players such as France, Russia, the United States and Japan.

However, a 1,000-megawatt reactor of its own design is still an unsolved problem for China. First of all, we are talking about the American-Japanese AP-1000 reactor and the French EPR-1600. With these technologies, the PRC plans to enter broad exports only in the 14th five-year plan (2021-2025). The difficulty with EPR-1600 is that, although France does not impose restrictions on the construction of such power units in China itself, any potential export contract for this type of reactor must be agreed with the owner of the main intellectual property rights, i.e. AREVA.

In addition to the lack of material resources, China also faces the fact that the system of training personnel for the nuclear industry does not have time to meet the country's growing needs for qualified specialists. Many issues of this kind are solved by attracting specialists from abroad, while the main goal of developing China's nuclear power industry until 2020 is to create its own infrastructure, domestic operational personnel, maximally Sinicized technologies for the millionth reactor, and develop industrial-scale technologies for the production of NPP components and nuclear fuel cycle products.

Thus, the export of nuclear technologies for the PRC is a matter of medium-term prospects. But given the rapid pace of Chinese adoption of various advanced technologies, this prospect may be closer. And as the millionth reactor is exported, China will become an increasingly serious competitor to other suppliers of nuclear technology, including Atomstroyexport.

Ijaz Muhammad. 1 Director of Scientific Information and Public Relation (SIPR) (December 2010). PAEC assigned 8,800 MWe nuclear power target by 2030:PAEC contributing to socio-economic uplift of the country // PakAtom Newsletter. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Islamabad.

2 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Nuclear Power Reactor Details - CHASNUPP 2 - http://www.iaea.org/cgibin/db.page.pl/pris.prdeta.htm?country-PK&site-CHASNUPP&units= &refno-3&link=HOT&sort=Reactor.Status,&sortrong-By%20Status

3 China Firm Aims to Build Big Nuclear Plant for Pakistan // Reuters, 20.09.2010.

4 Pakistan and China agreed to build a fifth unit at the Chashma nuclear power plant. Atomic Portal, November 2010 - http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2010/ll/26/16361

5 Zhongguo hedian hebei-zhongguo heneng fazhan yantaohui jiyao (Electric Power of the People's Republic of China. Minutes of the Meeting on Nuclear Development of the People's Republic of China). UBS investment research. November 2010.

6 Nuclear Power in Pakistan. World Nuclear Association (WNA). November 2010 - http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/infl08.html

7 Ibidem.

8 Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries. World Nuclear Association (WNA). September 2011 - http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf102.html

9 Russia and Vietnam signed an agreement on the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Southeast Asia. Atomic portal. Ноябрь 2010 -http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2010/11/02/15782

10 Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries...

11 Based on materials provided by the Second Division for the Asia-Pacific Region of the IAEA.

12 Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries...

13 Ibidem.

Ubon Ratchathani and Nakhon Sawan were selected as 14 NPP construction sites. Atomic Portal, September 2010 - http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2010/09/20/14335

15 Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries...

16 Based on materials provided by the Second Division for the Asia-Pacific Region of the IAEA.

17 Indonesia discusses Russia's proposal to build the country's first nuclear power plant. Atomic portal. Октябрь 2010 -http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2010/10/15/15251

Song Xiaofeng. 18 Dongmzn he zhongguo jiang seshou kaifa xin nengyuan (ASEAN and China aim to jointly develop " new " energy).

19 Indonesia is ready to build a nuclear power plant. Atomic Portal, May 2010 - http://www.atomic-energy.ru/node/11055

20 Indonesia can host more than 30 power units of nuclear power plants on its territory. Atomic Portal, November 2010 -http://www.atomic-energy.ru/news/2010/11/24/16332

21 Dongmen guojia de heneng kaifa ji anquan vzn'ti (Development of nuclear energy and security issues in the ASEAN countries) / / Yazhou zongheng, 2007, N 6.

22 Based on materials provided by the Second Division for the Asia-Pacific Region of the IAEA.

23 Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries...

24 Ibidem.

25 Iran's Link to China Includes Nukes, Missiles. The Washington Times, 17.03.2010.

26 China's Nuclear Exports and Assistance to Iran. Nuclear Threat Initiative. September 2003 - http://www.nti.org/db/china/niranpos.htm

27 James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. China's Nuclear Exports and Assistance to Iran - http://www.nti.org/db/china/niranpos.htm

28 Ibidem.

29 Ibid.

30 Draft Integrated Electricity Resource Plan for South Africa - 2010 to 2030.

31 Nuclear Power in South Africa. World Nuclear Association (WNA). November 2010 - http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf88.html

32 Draft Integrated Electricity Resource...

33 Nuclear Power in South Africa...

34 Hedian zhongchanchi fazhan guihua (2005-2020 nian) (Long-term Plan for the Development of nuclear Energy (2005-2020).

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